Analyzing Voter Turnout by State Over the Past Decade

Voter turnout is one of the most telling indicators of civic engagement in a democracy. Over the past decade, voter participation across the United States has experienced significant shifts, influenced by various factors such as changes in voting laws, political polarization, and grassroots mobilization efforts. This analysis delves into voter turnout trends by state, examining which states have consistently led or lagged in voter participation, how turnout has evolved over time, and the demographic factors that play a crucial role in shaping these patterns.

In this blog, we will explore key metrics, including average voter turnout for midterm and presidential elections, the states with the largest changes in turnout, and how demographic shifts have impacted voter participation. Our analysis spans data from the last ten years, offering insights into how voter turnout has varied across different elections and demographic groups.

Whether you're interested in the states that consistently turn out the most voters or the ones that have seen the most significant changes in participation, this comprehensive overview will provide a data-driven look at voter engagement across the nation.

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Where is Voter Participation Most Active in the U.S.?

Voter participation varies significantly across the United States, with some states consistently showing higher turnout rates than others. This section explores the states with the highest and lowest average turnout rates for presidential and midterm elections over the past decade, offering insights into where voter engagement is most robust.

States with the Highest Average Turnout Rate for Presidential Elections (2012-2022)

Over the past decade, Minnesota has led the nation in voter participation during presidential elections, with an average turnout rate of 77%. Close behind are Colorado at 73.4%, and New Hampshire at 72.8%. These states have consistently shown high levels of voter engagement, often driven by strong civic traditions, competitive elections, and effective voter mobilization efforts.

On the other end of the spectrum, Hawaii has the lowest average turnout rate for presidential elections at just 47.8%. Other states with low voter participation include West Virginia (51.2%) and Oklahoma (52.3%). These lower rates may be influenced by factors such as less competitive races, lower population density, and varying voter access challenges.

States with the Highest Average Turnout Rate for Midterm Elections (2012-2022)

When it comes to midterm elections, Maine takes the top spot with an average turnout rate of 59.8%, followed closely by Wisconsin at 59.4% and Oregon at 59.0%. These states have maintained high participation rates even in non-presidential election years, reflecting a strong commitment to civic engagement.

In contrast, Mississippi records the lowest average turnout for midterm elections at 35.1%.Tennessee (35.9%) and West Virginia (36.7%) also rank low in midterm voter participation, pointing to challenges in sustaining voter interest outside of presidential election cycles.

States with the Highest and Lowest Average Turnout Rate for Both Presidential and Midterm Elections (2012-2022)

Combining both presidential and midterm elections, Minnesota emerges as the state with the highest overall voter turnout, averaging 67.7% over the past decade. Other states with strong overall voter participation include Maine (66.2%) and Wisconsin (66.0%).

On the lower end, Hawaii once again shows the lowest average turnout rate across all general elections at 43.3%, followed by West Virginia (44.0%) and Oklahoma (44.7%). These trends suggest a persistent challenge in engaging voters in these states, regardless of the election type.

Trends in Voter Turnout: Presidential vs. Midterm Elections Over the Past Decade

Voter turnout has not been static over the past decade. Many states have experienced significant changes in their turnout rates, reflecting broader demographic shifts, changes in election laws, and the impact of voter mobilization efforts.

Largest Increases in Presidential Election Turnout

Arizona saw the most significant increase in voter turnout for presidential elections, with a 7.8% rise on average over the past decade. This increase likely reflects the state's growing competitiveness in national elections and efforts to engage a more diverse electorate. Utah (6.6%) and California (6.5%) also recorded substantial gains, driven by various factors, including changing demographics and intensified voter outreach campaigns.

Notably, no state has seen a downward trend in presidential election turnout over the past decade. This suggests a nationwide increase in voter engagement during presidential elections, likely influenced by the growing political polarization and the perceived stakes of these elections.

Overall, the United States experienced a 4.0% average increase in presidential election turnout over the past decade, with many states seeing even larger gains.

Largest Increases and Decreases in Midterm Election Turnout

Midterm elections have also seen notable changes in voter participation. Michigan leads the country with a 4.6% average increase in midterm turnout over the past decade, followed by Pennsylvania (4.0%) and the District of Columbia (3.7%). These increases may reflect heightened political engagement and awareness, particularly in states with competitive gubernatorial or congressional races.

However, not all states have followed this upward trend. Delaware experienced a 2.1% decrease in midterm election turnout, the largest drop in the country. Alabama (-1.9%) and North Dakota (-1.6%) also saw declines, indicating challenges in maintaining voter engagement outside of presidential elections.

Voter turnout typically fluctuates between presidential and midterm elections, with more citizens participating in the higher-profile presidential races. However, the degree of this fluctuation varies significantly by state.

States with the Largest Difference Between Presidential and Midterm Turnout

New Jersey leads the nation with the largest average difference in turnout between presidential and midterm elections, with a 24.3% higher turnout during presidential years. Close behind is Mississippi at 23.2%. These states reflect a common trend where voter engagement spikes during presidential elections but drops considerably during midterms. The reasons for this could include a greater focus on national issues during presidential races or a lack of competitive statewide races during midterms.

On average, the United States sees a 17.5% difference between voter turnout in presidential and midterm elections, underscoring a broader national trend of lower engagement during midterm years.

States with the Smallest Difference Between Presidential and Midterm Turnout

Conversely, some states show a much smaller gap between their presidential and midterm turnout rates, indicating more consistent voter engagement regardless of the election type. Hawaii has the smallest difference, with only a 9.0% drop-off in midterm election turnout compared to presidential elections. Alaska (9.6%) and Oregon (10.5%) also maintain relatively steady voter participation across election cycles.

The 2020 Presidential Election: A Record-Breaking Year for Turnout

The 2020 presidential election marked a significant milestone in voter participation, with a record turnout across all states. Hawaii and Arizona both saw a 12.5% increase in voter participation from the previous presidential election, the highest in the nation. Other states with large increases include Utah (11.4%), Washington (10.5%), and California (10.4%).

This unprecedented turnout was driven by a combination of factors, including the heightened stakes of the election, expanded access to mail-in and early voting, and extensive voter mobilization efforts. On average, voter turnout in 2020 increased by 6.5% across the United States, making it the highest turnout year of the past decade.

How Demographics Shape Voter Turnout

Voter turnout in the United States varies not only by state but also across different demographic groups. This section explores how voter participation has evolved over the past decade among various racial groups, age brackets, and education levels. By examining these trends, we can gain a deeper understanding of how different segments of the population engage in the electoral process.

Voter Turnout by Race

Over the past decade, voter turnout has shown significant variation across racial groups. Non-Hispanic White voters have consistently had the highest average turnout, with 58% participation across all general elections and 66.4% in presidential elections. This group also saw a 5.4% increase in presidential election turnout over the decade, peaking at 72.6% in 2020.

In contrast, Non-Hispanic Black voters experienced a slight decline in average presidential turnout, with a -0.9% change over the past decade. Their highest turnout was recorded in 2012 at 67.4%, but this rate decreased slightly in subsequent elections. Average voter turnout for Black voters sits at 64.3% for presidential elections and 53.5% for all midterm and presidential elections over the past decade. 

Hispanic and Other racial groups (as defined by the US Census Bureau) have seen notable increases in voter participation. Hispanic voters’ turnout in presidential elections increased by 4.7%, reaching its highest point of 52.5% in 2020. The Other racial category, which includes Asian Americans and Native Americans, saw the most significant presidential election voter increase at 7.2%, with a 2020 turnout of 59.8%.

Voter Turnout by Age

Age is another key factor influencing voter turnout. As expected, older voters consistently show higher participation rates. Americans aged 60 and above have the highest average turnout, with 67.4% overall and 73.5% during presidential elections. This group saw a 3.4% increase in turnout over the past decade, peaking at 78% in 2020.

Younger voters, particularly those aged 18-29, have historically lower turnout rates but have shown a promising increase in engagement. This age group had an average turnout of 35.2% overall, with a 5.8% increase in presidential election turnout, reaching 52.5% in 2020—their highest rate recorded in the past decade.

Voters aged 30-44 and 45-59 also showed strong participation, with notable increases in presidential election turnout, culminating in 2020 with turnouts of 64.4% and 72.9%, respectively.

Voter Turnout by Education Level

Education level has a profound impact on voter turnout, with higher educational attainment consistently correlating with higher participation rates. Post-graduate degree holders have the highest average turnout at 77.9% overall and 86.7% in presidential elections. This group also saw a 2.7% increase over the past decade, peaking at 90.4% in 2020.

Voters with Some College to College Graduate education levels also demonstrated strong engagement, with an average presidential election turnout of 71.1% and a 4.6% increase over the past decade.

At the other end of the spectrum, those with Less Than a High School education had the lowest turnout, averaging 26.8% overall and 33.2% in presidential elections. However, even this group saw a 1.9% increase over the past decade, with their highest turnout of 36.3% occurring in 2020.

Shifting Demographics: Understanding the Electorate's Composition Over the Past Decade

As the demographic landscape of the United States evolves, so too does the composition of the electorate. This section examines the proportion of the total voting population that belongs to specific demographic groups, offering insights into how the electorate's makeup has shifted over the past decade.

Electorate Share by Race

Over the past decade, Non-Hispanic White voters have consistently represented the largest share of the electorate, with an average overall electorate share of 73.8% across all general elections. However, this share has slightly decreased over time, with a -1.4% change in presidential election electorate share, peaking at 74.1% in 2012.

Non-Hispanic Black voters have maintained a stable presence within the electorate, with an average share of 12.2%. Despite a small -0.5% decrease over the decade, their highest share was recorded in 2012 at 13.2%.

The Hispanic and Other racial groups have seen their share of the electorate grow. The Hispanic electorate increased by 1.2% for presidential elections over the past decade, with the highest share of 10.6% in 2020. The Other category, including Asian Americans and Native Americans, also saw growth, increasing by 0.8% and reaching a 6.0% share in 2020.

Electorate Share by Age

The age distribution of the electorate has also shifted over the past decade. Voters aged 60 and above have become an increasingly significant portion of the electorate, with their share growing by 1.9% in presidential elections, submitting more than a third of all ballots in 2020 (35.3%). This trend reflects the aging population and the higher turnout rates among older voters.

Younger voters aged 18-29 have maintained a smaller yet stable share of the electorate, with a 0.5% increase in their presidential election share, reaching 16.5% in 2020. Meanwhile, the 30-44 age group has seen little change, holding steady at around 23% for presidential elections.

Voters aged 45-59 have experienced a decline in their share of the electorate, with a -2.5% change for presidential elections, and their highest share of 30% was recorded in 2012.

Electorate Share by Education Level

Education levels also play a crucial role in defining the electorate's composition. Post-graduate degree holders have seen a 1.1% increase in their share of the electorate, peaking at 15.4% in 2020. Similarly, those with Some College to College Graduate education have maintained the largest share, with an average of 55.7% for all general elections and a slight increase of 0.5% in presidential elections.

On the other hand, voters with Less Than a High School education and High School Graduates have seen a decrease in their share of the electorate, each dropping by -0.8% for presidential elections over the decade. This decline highlights the growing importance of higher education in shaping voter participation.

Closing Thoughts

Over the past decade, voter turnout in the United States has revealed much about the changing dynamics of civic engagement across the country. From the states that consistently lead in voter participation to those where turnout lags behind, the trends tell a compelling story of how political, social, and demographic factors influence the electoral landscape.

States like Minnesota and Maine have demonstrated a strong and steady commitment to voter participation, leading the nation in both presidential and midterm elections. Conversely, states such as Hawaii and West Virginia highlight the challenges of engaging voters in less competitive or lower-profile election years.

Demographic shifts have also played a crucial role in shaping the electorate. The increasing participation of younger voters, Hispanic communities, and those with higher education levels reflects broader societal changes and the growing importance of inclusivity in the democratic process. Meanwhile, the electorate's aging population continues to hold significant sway in voter turnout, particularly in presidential elections.

As we look ahead, understanding these trends is vital for anticipating future shifts in voter engagement. The data suggests that while overall voter turnout has generally increased, the disparities between different states and demographic groups remain a critical area for attention. By continuing to analyze and address these gaps, we can work toward a more engaged and representative electorate in the years to come.

One of the most effective ways to engage voters and close these participation gaps is through strategic and targeted messaging. At Strive Messaging, we’re committed to empowering organizations and campaigns to activate their supporters and boost civic engagement. Our powerful broadcast texting tools make it easy to scale your messaging efforts while building meaningful relationships with your movement. Want to make an impact? Schedule your Strive demo today.

Methodology

For this analysis, we examined data from the U.S. Elections Project on voter turnout for the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections, as well as the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm elections. We focused on the number of people who voted in each election compared to the Voting Eligible Population (VEP) in each state and across various demographic groups to determine the voter turnout rates for each election. Using these figures, we calculated voter turnout averages, tracked changes over time, and identified the year of highest voter engagement for each group. This approach allowed us to gain a comprehensive understanding of voter participation trends across different states and demographics over the past decade.